CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

A Response to DBS Jeyaraj - Changing Demographics Point towards a Unitary Solution

Dilrook Kannangara

The detailed analysis of the LTTE by DBS Jeyaraj encompassed a number of home truths that remain unaddressed by many quarters. Since Parabakaran effectively hijacked Tamil conscience, Tamils have been led to become a diminishing population. The said analysis contained a fact that only 42% of the Tamil population remains in the North-East today. More interestingly the Tamil population percentage of Sri Lanka has dropped by approximately 4% over the years. This can be easily reconciled to the numbers in the Tamil Diaspora which is equal to 4% of the Sri Lankan population. The story doesn’t end there. Last year this country recorded a net emigration percentage of 1.5%. Needless to say most of them were Tamils and needless to say this trend is only going to worsen in time to come. It is also true that a sudden stoppage of war is not going to change things either as local Tamils aggressively seek to emulate their relatives and friends who are leading a life that can only be dreamed of by the locals. Relative wealth of families, caste and parental pressure, marriage and prestige all are powerful forces driving local Tamils to join with their richer relatives abroad. War, peace or surrender this will not change.

These facts lead to a few important changes of some assumptions that are central to many assertions.

Changed assumption – the need for a political solution for Tamil grievances and/or aspirations only

It is high time Sri Lanka gets rid of gratifying racial and racist aspirations and grievances. Only 42% of local Tamils live in the North-East and it is only 42% of Tamils who are going to benefit (if at all) from a region-based or race-based political solution; 58% are going to be left out of it. On top of that the national Tamil population is fast diminishing and trying to gratify racial demands of a diminishing population is a grave injustice to other ethnic groups.

From another point of view, the Sri Lankan society is essentially multi-ethnic and multi-cultural. There is no way racial aspirations/grievances can be addressed in such a setting without compromising the legitimate rights of people belonging to other ethnicities. What Sri Lanka needs is a strong centralised structure that will look after the interests of every Sri Lankan completely disregarding ethnicity. Sri Lankan policymakers must completely forget about race and allow democracy take its course. Democracy does not allow any Tamil enclaves in this island and so should it be.

Addressing racial political issues has caused a lot of damage to the Sri Lankan society. It has led to suspicion, hatred and intolerance of other races. Today Muslim separatists have raised a very valid argument. If Tamil grievances and aspirations can be addressed why not address Muslim grievances and aspirations? Fair enough. What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Very dangerous developments that are taking place in the East are the direct result of trying to solve racial grievances and aspirations. Pretty soon Sinhala grievances and aspirations will also take the centre stage of Lankan politics. At least now we should understand the futility and racism in trying to address racial grievances and aspirations. Instead forgotten national grievances and aspirations must be looked into without delay.

Changed assumption – Tamil homelands

There are lesser reasons to believe that there are Tamil homelands in Sri Lanka today. Although Tamil Nadu has always been the Tamil homeland and by definition a community can have only one homeland, ethic cleansing in North-East once threatened to make it a Tamil only locality. However, Muslims and Sinhalese in the East have prevailed and today Muslim is the majority community in the East. If there was a hint of hope as to the presence of Tamil homelands in Lanka, it should be ditched now. But most importantly, replacing Tamil homelands with Muslim homelands is not the solution as that can further complicate matters and threaten further disintegration.

The open tussle between the two communities can be seen for the post of the Chief Minister, lands, etc. Soon these tussles will spread to dominating (not sharing) water, fishing rights, police powers, etc. What is the solution? It must be a unitary solution that safeguards the needs and interests of all from a national point of view and prioritise national needs over petty racial and regional dogfights.

The North must be put to economic use of all Sri Lankans which offers enormous potential for food production. The very low population in Vanni and Jaffna further supports this endeavour.

This can be done only under a national plan executer by the centre. A regional unit for the North will definitely reflect and justify LTTE’s ethnic cleansing acts and such a unit is likely to advance these nasty effects and hinder development.

Changed assumption – North-East population as a percentage of the national population (has reduced drastically)

However, thanks to the inefficiency of the rulers of Lanka, certain “equitable” resources, rights and benefits allocation schemes still reflect the 1971 census. Parliamentary seat allocation based on the “proportionate” representative system must change taking into account these changed numbers. So should district based university quotas. As long as these outdated proportions exist, grave injustice is committed to the people living outside the North-East. This must end soon.

One form of this injustice comes in the way of allowing a disproportionately large number of MPs from the North-East. As a result the legislative function of this country is unable to respond to ground realities. For instance although a large percentage of people support the war effort, the support it gets inside the legislature is much lower. Also although only a microscopic minority support the LTTE in the society, the support for the LTTE is magnified many times in the Parliament.

Another form of this injustice comes in allowing a disproportionately larger number of university opportunities to Northerners at the expense of the others. This has a triple evil impact. While it causes grave and severe injustice to others, it also produces a larger percentage of intellectual who leave the island as the emigration rates of Northerners are higher than the rest of the population. Also it is no secret that most of these emigrated professionals finance the LTTE. The Northerners must be allowed equitable education opportunities just as the rest of the population. The present preferential system caused by outdated numbers must change soon. Else the country will be digging its own grave in fear of the terrorists.

Changed assumption – Tamils may not be the largest minority anymore

A centuries old assumption has shattered. Although it is difficult to establish accurate population data, it is a fact that either the largest minority has changed hands or pretty soon it will. Although this should not change anything in governance, it will have a big impact on the society in many spheres of human activity. Changes will affect political, cultural, social, economic and even diplomatic priorities. For instance, if the disparities are corrected, the legislature will have more co-operative minority representation than now. From the Ilankai Thamil Arsu Katchi to the Tamil National Alliance through the Tamil United Liberation Front, none of the largest political parties representing the Tamil minority has joined the ruling party with the ludicrous exception being 1965. However, the emerging minority is more suitable for consensual political efforts leading to win-win situations.

In most Muslim schools there has been a gradual movement away from studying in the Tamil medium. Similarly there is a large number of Tamil students studying in the Sinhala medium today voluntarily. The likes of the Official Languages Commission must take note of these developments as their terms of references clearly depend on these numbers. It is time to integrate speaking a common language as it has happened in India, Australia, the US, etc. than divide into two different languages occasionally using a third language (although it is essential that all Sri Lankans are fluent in English soon) which is usable only by less than 15% of the population to intercommunicate.

The very close relationship with India is also likely to change as Sri Lanka will move closer to countries like Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the like for better cultural and economic ties.

However, the intimate religious relations between the Hindus and Buddhists and between Sinhala Christians and Tamil Christians will become less important and religious unity will diminish as Muslims share little or nothing with the rest in terms of religious affiliations.

Mostly Muslims are widespread than Tamils and their social, cultural and religious interests are best served in a unitary state. However, as discussed above political and economic matters should not be viewed racially.

Changed assumption – India is no longer the sole superpower in the South Asian region

Many things have changed since 1987. That year India forced upon Sri Lanka a set of unpopular decentralisation laws. This country is still paying heavily for this blunder in terms of financial and political terms not to mention the grudge it has caused among the communities. All countries surrounding India, except Sri Lanka, have teamed up with China which is undeniably the sole Asian superpower. Chinese logistical and military presence in Sri Lanka is unstoppable due to its strategic position. Unlike in 1987, the modern China takes an active interest not only in Asian affairs but also in world affairs.

As a result India-centred-decision-making must stop. In fact it will not be long when Sri Lanka will have to make vital decisions accommodating Chinese interests. This suits very well with the local perception regarding both these countries. Locals view China as a friend whereas India is considered an enemy just like the people of all other countries neighbouring India.

Therefore there is no need to consider India’s preferred solution for Lanka. NATO has moved inland from the North Atlantic and so will the future regional defence pacts in Asia which will spread beyond mere geographic proximity.

Changed assumption – the war strategy must change from a predominantly land capturing one to an extermination-focussed one

It was long ago a defence minister vowed that not even an inch of this land shall be given to the LTTE. That amply described the military strategy followed since. However, this has become quite irrelevant today. The East has survived the LTTE barrage and the north has become less populated. Only about 300,000 live under the LTTE in Wanni and neither the large Tamil Diaspora nor Tamils living outside Wanni are going to join the LTTE in war. Severe shortage of fighters is reflected in the extensive use of child soldiers, the inability to defend multiple fronts and the complete absence of large scale offensive requiring large numbers of fighters (e.g. ceaseless waves). On the other hand the army has swelled enormously in the recent past. The underlying active fighting support of the Tamil people has also dwindled as their numbers has diminished. The numerical advantage of the army vis-à-vis the numerical disadvantage of the LTTE means an extermination strategy best suits the war today.

Although the President vowed to wipe out the LTTE his words have not converted to action as security forces still seem to be following the same old strategy. A strategy to exploit the relative balances (and imbalances) of emerging issues especially the smaller catchment and lower numbers of the LTTE may need different weapon systems and approaches. It may also need adopting similar tactics as adopted by the terrorists. Maximising the kill quotient, maximising the number of wounded tigers succumbing to injuries, instilling an attitude commensurate with the new priorities, mining LTTE paths and routes, reconsider providing certain medical facilities in Wanni, using cluster munitions (thank God that sanity prevailed not to be bound by the ban) and changing the command structure of the tri-forces to garner emerging opportunities should become more important.

Tamil presence in Sri Lanka has fluctuated over the past 2,500 years. They (refers to the most dominant element within the Tamil community) have used more of either confrontation or coexistence during this period. Until the 14th century they adopted a confrontational approach which landed them in total disarray. From then until 1924 they used coexistence which prospered them. Since 1924 they went back to confrontation and history repeated. One thing is very clear. As long as Tamils have coexisted with the rest, they have prospered and the moment they took up confrontation, they have diminished. This is an incontestable historical fact. On the other hand this country needs. Therefore all attempts must be made to win this war before it is too late and encourage coexistence among the races than demarcation. All should overcome the narrow-mindedness that demarcated us. Only a unitary structure has done it in the past and only that can do it today.

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